← Fyendal Hobby PTM Store Championship
Water Luxem AssassinTier 2
at Fyendal Hobby PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(6.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
4-5-2
overall winrate
45.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.7%
avg ELO -3.2 per match
expected value
49.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1250
· median 1250
· range 1112–1388
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1190
Q3 1388
1525
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 24.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.1% | +3.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -3.6 |
| Fire Suited | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Water Neos | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +4.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
